Fiorentina 4–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

AC Milan

D. Vlahović 85', 60'

R. Saponara 45+1'

A. Duncan 15'

L. Venuti 90+6' (OG)

Z. Ibrahimović 67', 62'

11/20/2021

Serie A · Round 13Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fiorentina40%

×Draw26%

AC Milan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Fiorentina

1.42

AC Milan

1.29

Fiorentina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

1.70

creates per match

1.53

1.06

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

AC Milan

1.53

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

AC Milan

1.14

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

AC Milan-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

66%

Fiorentina or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

60%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

19%

AC Milan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

AC Milan 1+ goals

72%

AC Milan 2+ goals

37%

AC Milan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

54%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + AC Milan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

AC Milan attack 1.53 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fiorentina scores more

40%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

34%

Fiorentina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Z. Ibrahimović

AC Milan · F

8.9

Match Events

15'

A. Duncan

45+1'

R. Saponara↳ D. Vlahović

56'

O. Giroud← Brahim Díaz

57'

Junior Messias← A. Saelemaekers

57'

A. Florenzi← P. Kalulu

60'

D. Vlahović↳ A. Duncan

62'

Z. Ibrahimović

67'

Z. Ibrahimović↳ T. Hernández

69'

N. González← José Callejón

69'

G. Castrovilli← G. Bonaventura

74'

I. Bennacer← S. Tonali

80'

R. Krunić← Rafael Leão

85'

D. Vlahović↳ N. González

90+5'

Gaetano Castrovilli

90+5'

Theo Hernández

90+3'

Y. Maleh← A. Duncan

90+6'

L. VenutiOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaAC

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots17

5Corners6

6Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots17

5On Target7

3Off Target6

1Blocked4

8Inside Box13

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

404Total Passes501

332Accurate Passes438

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides7