Fiorentina 2–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Fiorentina

1.42

AC Milan

1.29

Fiorentina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

1.70

creates per match

1.53

1.06

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

AC Milan

1.53

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

AC Milan

1.14

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

AC Milan-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

66%

Fiorentina or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

60%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

19%

AC Milan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

AC Milan 1+ goals

72%

AC Milan 2+ goals

37%

AC Milan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

54%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + AC Milan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

AC Milan attack 1.53 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fiorentina scores more

40%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

34%

Fiorentina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

S. Kjær

AC Milan · D

8.2

Match Events

9'

Z. Ibrahimović↳ S. Kjær

17'

E. Pulgar

41'

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

44'

P. Terracciano← B. Drągowski

47'

Diogo Dalot

51'

F. Ribéry↳ D. Vlahović

57'

Brahim Díaz↳ S. Kjær

58'

Samu Castillejo← A. Saelemaekers

58'

I. Bennacer← S. Tonali

71'

L. Venuti← G. Castrovilli

72'

H. Çalhanoğlu↳ F. Kessié

79'

José Callejón← E. Pulgar

79'

C. Kouamé← L. Martínez

80'

R. Krunić← Brahim Díaz

89'

Christian Kouamé

90'

Soualiho Meïté

90+1'

S. Meïté← H. Çalhanoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaAC

Overview

39%Possession61%

7Total Shots13

8Corners8

6Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target3

5Off Target7

0Blocked3

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

325Total Passes504

257Accurate Passes433

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1