Fiorentina 0–1 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AC Milan

H. Çalhanoğlu 35'

5/11/2019

Serie A · Round 36Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Fiorentina42%

×Draw26%

AC Milan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.25

Fiorentina

1.46

AC Milan

1.25

Fiorentina creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

1.70

creates per match

1.50

1.01

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

AC Milan

1.50

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

AC Milan

1.23

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

68%

Fiorentina or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

58%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

20%

AC Milan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

77%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

43%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

18%

AC Milan 1+ goals

71%

AC Milan 2+ goals

36%

AC Milan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

56%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fiorentina scores more

42%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

32%

Fiorentina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

G. Donnarumma

AC Milan · G

8.0

Match Events

34'

35'

67'

69'

74'

D. Vlahović← E. Fernandes

74'

P. Cutrone← K. Piątek

78'

Gianluigi Donnarumma

81'

Samu Castillejo← Suso

84'

C. Nørgaard← B. Dabo

88'

D. Laxalt← F. Borini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaAC

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots14

5Corners6

15Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target5

7Off Target4

3Blocked5

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

401Total Passes416

314Accurate Passes334

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2