Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fiorentina U20 vs Monza U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Monza U20
Monza U20
4/28/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 35Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fiorentina U2054%
×Draw22%
Monza U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
1.96
Monza U20
1.23

Fiorentina U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Monza U20
1.26

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Monza U20
1.68

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Monza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Monza U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
76%
Fiorentina U20 or Monza U20
78%
Draw or Monza U20
46%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
31%
Monza U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
86%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
58%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
31%
Monza U20 1+ goals
71%
Monza U20 2+ goals
35%
Monza U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Monza U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.96

Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
54%
level
22%
Monza U20 scores more
24%

Fiorentina U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina U20 vs Monza U20

Monza U20 beat Fiorentina U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.