Fiorentina U20 1–1 Milan U20: Result & Stats

Fiorentina U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Milan U20

11/22/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 12Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Fiorentina U2050%

×Draw23%

Milan U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fiorentina U20Expected goals in this matchMilan U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.29

Fiorentina U20

1.81

Milan U20

1.29

Fiorentina U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 39 away

2.24

creates per match

1.38

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Fiorentina U20

2.24

Milan U20

1.38

allows per match

Fiorentina U20

1.21

Milan U20

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Milan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Milan U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw

73%

Fiorentina U20 or Milan U20

77%

Draw or Milan U20

50%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+

27%

Milan U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals

84%

Fiorentina U20 2+ goals

54%

Fiorentina U20 3+ goals

27%

Milan U20 1+ goals

72%

Milan U20 2+ goals

37%

Milan U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Milan U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Milan U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Milan U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.81

Milan U20 attack 1.38 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more

50%

level

23%

Milan U20 scores more

27%

Fiorentina U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff