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Fiorentina U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
12/21/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 17Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Fiorentina U2056%
×Draw22%
Cagliari U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
1.97
Cagliari U20
1.18

Fiorentina U20 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 39 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Cagliari U20
1.15

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Cagliari U20
1.69

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Cagliari U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Cagliari U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
77%
Fiorentina U20 or Cagliari U20
78%
Draw or Cagliari U20
44%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
33%
Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
86%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
58%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
31%
Cagliari U20 1+ goals
69%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
33%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Cagliari U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Cagliari U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.97

Cagliari U20 attack 1.15 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
56%
level
22%
Cagliari U20 scores more
23%

Fiorentina U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Fiorentina U20 0–1 Cagliari U20

Cagliari U20 beat Fiorentina U20 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.