Fiorentina U20 2–0 Bologna U20: Result & Stats

Fiorentina U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bologna U20

5/24/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Semi-finalsCurva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Fiorentina U2049%

×Draw24%

Bologna U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fiorentina U20Expected goals in this matchBologna U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.16

Fiorentina U20

1.67

Bologna U20

1.16

Fiorentina U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 40 away

2.24

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fiorentina U20

2.24

Bologna U20

1.10

allows per match

Fiorentina U20

1.21

Bologna U20

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw

73%

Fiorentina U20 or Bologna U20

76%

Draw or Bologna U20

51%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+

26%

Bologna U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina U20 2+ goals

50%

Fiorentina U20 3+ goals

23%

Bologna U20 1+ goals

69%

Bologna U20 2+ goals

32%

Bologna U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more

49%

level

24%

Bologna U20 scores more

27%

Fiorentina U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff