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Fiorentina U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
10/26/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fiorentina U2050%
×Draw23%
Atalanta U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
1.85
Atalanta U20
1.29

Fiorentina U20 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Atalanta U20
1.37

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Atalanta U20
1.47

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
73%
Fiorentina U20 or Atalanta U20
77%
Draw or Atalanta U20
50%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
28%
Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
84%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
55%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
28%
Atalanta U20 1+ goals
72%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
37%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
65%
Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
50%
level
23%
Atalanta U20 scores more
27%

Fiorentina U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Fiorentina U20 2–2 Atalanta U20

Fiorentina U20 and Atalanta U20 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.