Fiorentina U19 3–1 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Fiorentina U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cesena U19

11/5/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 11Stadio Piero Torrini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fiorentina U1963%

×Draw18%

Cesena U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fiorentina U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.25

Fiorentina U19

2.45

Cesena U19

1.25

Fiorentina U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

1.66

creates per match

1.06

1.43

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Fiorentina U19

1.66

Cesena U19

1.06

allows per match

Fiorentina U19

1.43

Cesena U19

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fiorentina U19 or draw

82%

Fiorentina U19 or Cesena U19

82%

Draw or Cesena U19

37%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U19 wins by 2+

42%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fiorentina U19 1+ goals

91%

Fiorentina U19 2+ goals

70%

Fiorentina U19 3+ goals

44%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

71%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

36%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U19 attack 1.66 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.45

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Fiorentina U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fiorentina U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Cesena U19 scores more

18%

Fiorentina U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fiorentina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff