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Finnsnes vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Finnsnes
Finnsnes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fløya
Fløya
H. Flogum 57'
M. Sandvik 48'
M. A. Berg 36', 4'
4/6/20263. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Finnsnes56%
×Draw19%
Fløya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnsnes
2.42
Fløya
1.58

Finnsnes creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Finnsnes
2.67
Fløya
2.33

allows per match

Finnsnes
0.83
Fløya
2.17

finishing

Finnsnes+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnsnes ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Finnsnes or draw
75%
Finnsnes or Fløya
81%
Draw or Fløya
44%

Winning margin

Finnsnes wins by 2+
35%
Fløya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Finnsnes 1+ goals
91%
Finnsnes 2+ goals
69%
Finnsnes 3+ goals
43%
Fløya 1+ goals
79%
Fløya 2+ goals
47%
Fløya 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Finnsnes (draw refunded)
69%
Fløya (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnsnes at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnsnes attack 2.67 + Fløya defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fløya attack 2.33 + Finnsnes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Finnsnes scores more
56%
level
19%
Fløya scores more
25%

Finnsnes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Finnsnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. A. Berg
36'
M. A. Berg
48'
M. Sandvik
57'
H. Flogum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finnsnes vs Fløya

Finnsnes and Fløya drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 6, 2026.

Goals: M. A. Berg (4', 36'), M. Sandvik (48'), H. Flogum (57').