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Finnkurd vs Musa — Suomen Cup 2018

Finnkurd
Finnkurd
FT
0 – 4
Musa
Musa
9/17/2017Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKontulan Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finnkurd19%
×Draw17%
Musa64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnkurd
1.48
Musa
2.81

Musa creates 90% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Finnkurd
1.33
Musa
3.29

allows per match

Finnkurd
2.33
Musa
1.64

finishing

Finnkurd+0.00on par
Musa+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnkurd ↓

Musa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Finnkurd or draw
36%
Finnkurd or Musa
83%
Draw or Musa
81%

Winning margin

Finnkurd wins by 2+
8%
Musa wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Finnkurd 1+ goals
77%
Finnkurd 2+ goals
43%
Finnkurd 3+ goals
19%
Musa 1+ goals
94%
Musa 2+ goals
76%
Musa 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Finnkurd (draw refunded)
22%
Musa (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnkurd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Musa away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnkurd attack 1.33 + Musa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Musa attack 3.29 + Finnkurd defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Finnkurd scores more
19%
level
17%
Musa scores more
64%

Musa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Musa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Finnkurd 0–4 Musa

Musa beat Finnkurd 4-0 in Suomen Cup on September 17, 2017.

The match was played at Kontulan Tekonurmi in Helsinki.