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Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
4/24/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 4Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl68%
×Draw16%
Westfalia Herne15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.77
Westfalia Herne
1.27

Finnentrop / Bamenohl creates 118% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
85%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Westfalia Herne
84%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
32%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
47%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
94%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
76%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
51%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
72%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
36%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
81%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.77

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
68%
level
16%
Westfalia Herne scores more
15%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Finnentrop / Bamenohl 5–1 Westfalia Herne

Finnentrop / Bamenohl beat Westfalia Herne 5-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bamenohl in Finnentrop.