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Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
2/21/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 24Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl39%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Siegen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.76
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
61%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Sportfreunde Siegen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
61%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
20%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
83%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
52%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
26%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
83%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
52%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
50%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
39%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
39%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1–1 Sportfreunde Siegen

Finnentrop / Bamenohl and Sportfreunde Siegen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bamenohl in Finnentrop.