Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3–0 Sportfreunde Lotte

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sportfreunde Lotte

11/6/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl36%

×Draw22%

Sportfreunde Lotte42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finnentrop / BamenohlExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Lotte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.86

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.70

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

2.08

creates per match

2.00

1.73

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.08

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.00

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.73

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw

58%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Sportfreunde Lotte

78%

Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte

64%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

18%

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

82%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

51%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

24%

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

84%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

55%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

46%

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

36%

level

22%

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

42%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff