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Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Kaan-Marienborn — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
CANC
14:00
Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
2/21/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl29%
×Draw21%
Kaan-Marienborn50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.60
Kaan-Marienborn
2.16

Kaan-Marienborn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
Kaan-Marienborn
2.59

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
Kaan-Marienborn
1.12

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
50%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Kaan-Marienborn
79%
Draw or Kaan-Marienborn
71%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
14%
Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
80%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
47%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
22%
Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
88%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
63%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
36%
Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
29%
level
21%
Kaan-Marienborn scores more
50%

Kaan-Marienborn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Kaan-Marienborn — Match Preview

Finnentrop / Bamenohl face Kaan-Marienborn on February 21, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl host Kaan-Marienborn at Sportplatz Bamenohl.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.