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Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
3/20/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl42%
×Draw22%
Holzwickeder SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.88
Holzwickeder SC
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
64%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Holzwickeder SC
78%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
58%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
23%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
85%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
56%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
29%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
82%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
52%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
54%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
42%
level
22%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
36%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Holzwickeder SC

Finnentrop / Bamenohl beat Holzwickeder SC 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bamenohl in Finnentrop.