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Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
CANC
14:30
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
11/21/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 9Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl58%
×Draw20%
Hammer SpVg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.28
Hammer SpVg
1.34

Finnentrop / Bamenohl creates 70% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
78%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Hammer SpVg
80%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
42%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
36%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
90%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
66%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
39%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
74%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
39%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
73%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.28

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
58%
level
20%
Hammer SpVg scores more
22%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Finnentrop / Bamenohl host Hammer SpVg

November 21, 2020: Finnentrop / Bamenohl take on Hammer SpVg in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl host Hammer SpVg at Sportplatz Bamenohl.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.