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Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
4/28/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 30Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl42%
×Draw23%
Gievenbeck35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.75
Gievenbeck
1.58

Finnentrop / Bamenohl creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 70 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
65%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Gievenbeck
77%
Draw or Gievenbeck
58%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
22%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
83%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
52%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
25%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
79%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
47%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
55%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
42%
level
23%
Gievenbeck scores more
35%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs Gievenbeck

Gievenbeck beat Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bamenohl in Finnentrop.