Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2–1 Brunninghausen

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brunninghausen

12/10/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl54%

×Draw22%

Brunninghausen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finnentrop / BamenohlExpected goals in this matchBrunninghausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.25

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.98

Brunninghausen

1.25

Finnentrop / Bamenohl creates 58% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

2.08

creates per match

0.76

1.73

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.08

Brunninghausen

0.76

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.73

Brunninghausen

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Brunninghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Brunninghausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw

76%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Brunninghausen

78%

Draw or Brunninghausen

46%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

32%

Brunninghausen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

86%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

59%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

31%

Brunninghausen 1+ goals

71%

Brunninghausen 2+ goals

36%

Brunninghausen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

69%

Brunninghausen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Brunninghausen away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Brunninghausen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Brunninghausen attack 0.76 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

54%

level

22%

Brunninghausen scores more

24%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff