Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
5/20/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl39%
×Draw22%
ASC Dortmund39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.83
ASC Dortmund
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.08
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw
61%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl or ASC Dortmund
78%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
61%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
20%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
84%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
54%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
28%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
84%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
55%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
50%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
39%
level
22%
ASC Dortmund scores more
39%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finnentrop / Bamenohl vs ASC Dortmund

ASC Dortmund beat Finnentrop / Bamenohl 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bamenohl in Finnentrop.