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Finn Harps vs Wexford — First Division 2019

Finn Harps
Finn Harps
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wexford
Wexford
3/6/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 4Finn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Finn Harps42%
×Draw26%
Wexford32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finn Harps
1.47
Wexford
1.25

Finn Harps creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 119 away

creates per match

Finn Harps
1.18
Wexford
1.18

allows per match

Finn Harps
1.32
Wexford
1.76

finishing

Finn Harps+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finn Harps ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Finn Harps or draw
68%
Finn Harps or Wexford
74%
Draw or Wexford
58%

Winning margin

Finn Harps wins by 2+
20%
Wexford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Finn Harps 1+ goals
77%
Finn Harps 2+ goals
43%
Finn Harps 3+ goals
18%
Wexford 1+ goals
71%
Wexford 2+ goals
36%
Wexford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Finn Harps (draw refunded)
57%
Wexford (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finn Harps at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finn Harps attack 1.18 + Wexford defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wexford attack 1.18 + Finn Harps defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Finn Harps scores more
42%
level
26%
Wexford scores more
32%

Finn Harps at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Finn Harps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finn Harps vs Wexford

Finn Harps and Wexford drew 1-1 in First Division on March 6, 2026.

The match was played at Finn Park in Ballybofey.