Finland W 2–2 Poland W: Result & Stats

Finland W

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Poland W

K. Klabis 25' (OG)

E. Summanen 23'

E. Pajor 77'

D. Grabowska 58'

6/11/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Finland W28%

×Draw21%

Poland W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland WExpected goals in this matchPoland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.13

Finland W

1.54

Poland W

2.13

Poland W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.43

1.83

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Finland W

1.50

Poland W

2.43

allows per match

Finland W

1.83

Poland W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland W+0.00on par

Poland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland W ↓

Poland W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Finland W or draw

49%

Finland W or Poland W

79%

Draw or Poland W

72%

Winning margin

Finland W wins by 2+

13%

Poland W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Finland W 1+ goals

79%

Finland W 2+ goals

45%

Finland W 3+ goals

20%

Poland W 1+ goals

88%

Poland W 2+ goals

63%

Poland W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Finland W (draw refunded)

35%

Poland W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Finland W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Poland W away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Finland W attack 1.50 + Poland W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Poland W attack 2.43 + Finland W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Finland W scores more

28%

level

21%

Poland W scores more

51%

Poland W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Poland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

E. Summanen

25'

K. KlabisOwn goal

46'

O. Ahtinen← E. Alanen

52'

S. Franssi

58'

D. Grabowska↳ E. Pajor

62'

J. Rantala← N. Heroum

62'

E. Kamczyk← W. Zawistowska

77'

E. Pajor

84'

K. Collin← R. Öling

84'

J. Kemppi← L. Sällström

84'

Z. Buszewska← A. Achcińska

84'

K. Jedlińska← N. Padilla-Bidas

84'

E. Zdunek← D. Grabowska

90+1'

E. Pikkujämsä← S. Franssi

Finland

Poland

🥅

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⚽A

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Manager: A. Signeul

46'▲O. Ahtinen←▼E. Alanen

62'▲J. Rantala←▼N. Heroum

84'▲K. Collin←▼R. Öling

84'▲J. Kemppi←▼L. Sällström

90+1'▲E. Pikkujämsä←▼S. Franssi

Finland W substitutes

8Ahtinen22Rantala19Collin9Kemppi2Pikkujämsä12Talaslahti13Danielsson3Koivisto14Nyström21Salmi

Manager: N. Patalon

62'▲E. Kamczyk←▼W. Zawistowska

84'▲Z. Buszewska←▼A. Achcińska

84'▲K. Jedlińska←▼N. Padilla-Bidas

84'▲E. Zdunek←▼D. Grabowska

Poland W substitutes

11Kamczyk17Buszewska5Jedlińska21Zdunek24Ratajczyk20Karczewska13Balcerzak28Zieniewicz18Kaletka27Wróblewska26Grzybowska1Szymanska