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Finland vs Wales — Friendlies 2026

Finland
Finland
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wales
Wales
9/1/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Helsingin olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Finland69%
×Draw24%
Wales8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finland
1.59
Wales
0.35

Finland creates 354% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Finland
1.40
Wales
0.11

allows per match

Finland
0.60
Wales
1.78

finishing

Finland+0.00on par
Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland ↓

Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Finland or draw
92%
Finland or Wales
76%
Draw or Wales
31%

Winning margin

Finland wins by 2+
39%
Wales wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Finland 1+ goals
80%
Finland 2+ goals
47%
Finland 3+ goals
21%
Wales 1+ goals
30%
Wales 2+ goals
5%
Wales 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Finland (draw refunded)
90%
Wales (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Wales away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland attack 1.40 + Wales defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Wales attack 0.11 + Finland defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Finland scores more
69%
level
24%
Wales scores more
8%

Finland at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
U. Nissilä← J. Assehnoun
46'
B. Davies← J. Lawrence
46'
W. Hennessey← D. Ward
55'
Glen Kamara
63'
J. Sheehan← J. Williams
63'
R. Colwill← B. Johnson
64'
P. Soiri← S. Hostikka
64'
R. Taylor← F. Jensen
65'
Josh Sheehan
73'
J. Pohjanpalo← M. Forss
73'
N. Alho← J. Raitala
73'
B. Woodburn← E. Ampadu
83'
G. Bale← T. Roberts

Possession

53%Finland

Shots

0Finland

Statistics

FinlandWales
Overview
53%Possession47%
0Total Shots8
3Corners2
11Fouls8
Shots
0Total Shots8
0On Target4
0Off Target4
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Finland vs Wales

Finland and Wales drew 0-0 in Friendlies on September 1, 2021.

Finland controlled possession (53%) and registered 0 shots to 8.

The match was played at Helsingin olympiastadion in Helsingfors.