Finland 2–1 Estonia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Finland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Estonia

K. Hein 38' (OG)

F. Jensen 30'

A. Tamm 62'

3/26/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Helsingin olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Finland55%

×Draw27%

Estonia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FinlandExpected goals in this matchEstonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.68

Finland

1.44

Estonia

0.68

Finland creates 112% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

1.40

creates per match

0.76

0.60

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Finland

1.40

Estonia

0.76

allows per match

Finland

0.60

Estonia

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland+0.00on par

Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland ↓

Estonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Finland or draw

82%

Finland or Estonia

73%

Draw or Estonia

45%

Winning margin

Finland wins by 2+

28%

Estonia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Finland 1+ goals

76%

Finland 2+ goals

42%

Finland 3+ goals

18%

Estonia 1+ goals

49%

Estonia 2+ goals

15%

Estonia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Finland (draw refunded)

76%

Estonia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland attack 1.40 + Estonia defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Estonia attack 0.76 + Finland defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Finland scores more

55%

level

27%

Estonia scores more

18%

Finland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Tamm

Estonia · F

7.9

Match Events

30'

F. Jensen

38'

K. HeinOwn goal

46'

M. Peltola← K. Kairinen

46'

M. Ainsalu← M. Vetkal

58'

Märten Kuusk

62'

A. Tamm↳ H. Anier

63'

D. Håkans← R. Lod

63'

N. Alho← P. Soiri

68'

M. Lepik← A. Tamm

69'

K. Palumets← M. Poom

69'

V. Sinyavskiy← A. Pikk

76'

T. Pukki← B. Källman

77'

R. Schüller← M. Peltola

77'

J. Pohjanpalo← O. Antman

83'

Joel Pohjanpalo

88'

K. Laur← K. Hussar

88'

K. Vassiljev← M. Soomets

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FinlandEstonia

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots12

8Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target5

4Off Target1

4Blocked6

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

546Total Passes330

427Accurate Passes233

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1