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Finland U23 W vs Mexico U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Finland U23 W
Finland U23 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mexico U23 W
Mexico U23 W
T. Ratts 63'
P. Garcia 18'
10/28/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland U23 W41%
×Draw25%
Mexico U23 W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finland U23 W
1.50
Mexico U23 W
1.33

Finland U23 W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Finland U23 W
2.00
Mexico U23 W
1.00

allows per match

Finland U23 W
1.67
Mexico U23 W
1.00

finishing

Finland U23 W+0.00on par
Mexico U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U23 W ↓

Mexico U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Finland U23 W or draw
66%
Finland U23 W or Mexico U23 W
75%
Draw or Mexico U23 W
59%

Winning margin

Finland U23 W wins by 2+
20%
Mexico U23 W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Finland U23 W 1+ goals
78%
Finland U23 W 2+ goals
44%
Finland U23 W 3+ goals
19%
Mexico U23 W 1+ goals
74%
Mexico U23 W 2+ goals
38%
Mexico U23 W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Finland U23 W (draw refunded)
55%
Mexico U23 W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U23 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Mexico U23 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U23 W attack 2.00 + Mexico U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mexico U23 W attack 1.00 + Finland U23 W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Finland U23 W scores more
41%
level
25%
Mexico U23 W scores more
34%

Finland U23 W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Finland U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. Garcia
63'
T. Ratts

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Finland U23 W 1–1 Mexico U23 W

Finland U23 W and Mexico U23 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on October 28, 2025.

Goals: P. Garcia (18'), T. Ratts (63').