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Finland U23 W vs Denmark U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Finland U23 W
Finland U23 W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Denmark U23 W
Denmark U23 W
10/22/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland U23 W51%
×Draw21%
Denmark U23 W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finland U23 W
2.10
Denmark U23 W
1.53

Finland U23 W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Finland U23 W
2.00
Denmark U23 W
1.40

allows per match

Finland U23 W
1.67
Denmark U23 W
2.20

finishing

Finland U23 W+0.00on par
Denmark U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U23 W ↓

Denmark U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Finland U23 W or draw
72%
Finland U23 W or Denmark U23 W
79%
Draw or Denmark U23 W
49%

Winning margin

Finland U23 W wins by 2+
30%
Denmark U23 W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Finland U23 W 1+ goals
88%
Finland U23 W 2+ goals
62%
Finland U23 W 3+ goals
35%
Denmark U23 W 1+ goals
78%
Denmark U23 W 2+ goals
45%
Denmark U23 W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Finland U23 W (draw refunded)
64%
Denmark U23 W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U23 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Denmark U23 W away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U23 W attack 2.00 + Denmark U23 W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Denmark U23 W attack 1.40 + Finland U23 W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Finland U23 W scores more
51%
level
21%
Denmark U23 W scores more
28%

Finland U23 W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Finland U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finland U23 W vs Denmark U23 W

Denmark U23 W beat Finland U23 W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on October 22, 2025.