Finland U19 5–0 San Marino U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Marino U19

J. Paananen 87', 59'

D. Nzoko 75'

O. Helen 46', 22'

10/12/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Järvenpää TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Finland U1978%

×Draw13%

San Marino U199%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchSan Marino U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

0.94

Finland U19

3.04

San Marino U19

0.94

Finland U19 creates 223% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.82

creates per match

0.25

1.64

allows per match

4.25

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

San Marino U19

0.25

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

San Marino U19

4.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

San Marino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

San Marino U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

91%

Finland U19 or San Marino U19

87%

Draw or San Marino U19

22%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

59%

San Marino U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

95%

Finland U19 2+ goals

80%

Finland U19 3+ goals

57%

San Marino U19 1+ goals

61%

San Marino U19 2+ goals

24%

San Marino U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

90%

San Marino U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

San Marino U19 away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + San Marino U19 defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.04

San Marino U19 attack 0.25 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Finland U19 scores more

78%

level

13%

San Marino U19 scores more

9%

Finland U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Nzoko← V. Huovila

22'

O. Helen

45+2'

I. Mendolin

46'

A. Puukko← J. Lähteenmäki

46'

M. Siltanen← O. Ruoppi

46'

O. Helen

48'

E. Dell Balda

59'

J. Paananen

74'

D. Ezeh← O. Helen

75'

D. Nzoko

77'

F. Domeniconi← S. Forcellini

81'

P. Mentu← I. Mendolin

87'

Filippo Valentini II← Filippo Valentini I

87'

J. Paananen

89'

C. Meloni← G. Bugli

90+2'

N. Nurmi

Finland

San

1

Casadei

6

Marinucci

2

Bindi

18

▼

I

5

Zafferani

20

▼

Forcellin

4

▼

17

7

10

9

12

5

3

4

10

▼

Ruoppi

8

▼

Mendolin

16

⚽2

Paananen

11

▼

Lähteenmä

18

▼

Huovila

9

⚽2

▼

Helen

19

Vauhkonen

Manager: P. Lundberg

21'▲D. Nzoko←▼V. Huovila

46'▲A. Puukko←▼J. Lähteenmäki

46'▲M. Siltanen←▼O. Ruoppi

74'▲D. Ezeh←▼O. Helen

81'▲P. Mentu←▼I. Mendolin

Finland U19 substitutes

17Nzoko2Puukko7Siltanen20Ezeh21Mentu14Toivonen15Kangasniemi1Maukonen6Pasanen

Manager: N. Cancelli

77'▲F. Domeniconi←▼S. Forcellini

87'▲Filippo Valentini II←▼Filippo Valentini I

89'▲C. Meloni←▼G. Bugli

San Marino U19 substitutes

16Domeniconi19II13Meloni14Mularoni8Bugli12Hoël15Pasolini

Match Recap: Finland U19 vs San Marino U19

Finland U19 beat San Marino U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2024.

Goals: O. Helen (22', 46'), J. Paananen (59', 87'), D. Nzoko (75').

The match was played at Järvenpää TN in Järvenpää.

Finland U19 vs San Marino U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Finland U19 vs San Marino U19