Finland U19 3–0 Republic of Ireland U19

Finland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Republic of Ireland U19

P. Mentu 66'

D. Nzoko 55'

M. Siltanen 4'

3/19/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Sportzentrum Windmühlenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Finland U1942%

×Draw24%

Republic of Ireland U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchRepublic of Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.47

Finland U19

1.66

Republic of Ireland U19

1.47

Finland U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.82

creates per match

1.30

1.64

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Republic of Ireland U19

1.30

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Republic of Ireland U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Republic of Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

66%

Finland U19 or Republic of Ireland U19

76%

Draw or Republic of Ireland U19

58%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

22%

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

81%

Finland U19 2+ goals

49%

Finland U19 3+ goals

23%

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

77%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

43%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Republic of Ireland U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.30 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Finland U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

34%

Finland U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

4'

24'

28'

33'

55'

64'

I. Orazi← N. Razi

64'

T. Morley← J. Devaney

66'

V. Huovila← E. Vauhkonen

66'

P. Mentu

70'

E. Toivonen← J. Lähteenmäki

71'

O. Helen← D. Nzoko

75'

C. Dillon← M. Noonan

75'

N. Okosun← A. Moloney

80'

I. Mendolin← M. Siltanen

Finland

Republic

1

21

5

8

10

▼

Razi

4

Turley

6

▼

Devaney

11

▼

Moloney

12

Keogh

7

Koné-Dohe

19

▼

1

2

5

15

10

7

⚽

▼

Siltanen

19

▼

Vauhkonen

21

⚽

Mentu

16

Kirilov

11

▼

Lähteenmä

17

⚽

▼

Nzoko

Manager: P. Lundberg

66'▲V. Huovila←▼E. Vauhkonen

70'▲E. Toivonen←▼J. Lähteenmäki

71'▲O. Helen←▼D. Nzoko

80'▲I. Mendolin←▼M. Siltanen

Finland U19 substitutes

18Huovila3Toivonen9Helen8Mendolin6Riihilahti4Saarela12Vuorjoki14Körkkö20Daldum

Manager: T. Mohan

64'▲I. Orazi←▼N. Razi

64'▲T. Morley←▼J. Devaney

75'▲C. Dillon←▼M. Noonan

75'▲N. Okosun←▼A. Moloney

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

14Orazi2Morley9Dillon18Okosun17McCarthy3O'Sullivan15Babb16Dike20Moore