Finland U19 3–1 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Poland U19

H. Salomaa 87'

L. Hyryläinen 45+1'

C. Terho 21'

A. Buksa 67' (pen)

10/6/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Finland U1938%

×Draw24%

Poland U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Finland U19

1.50

Poland U19

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.36

1.64

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

62%

Finland U19 or Poland U19

76%

Draw or Poland U19

62%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

18%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

78%

Finland U19 2+ goals

44%

Finland U19 3+ goals

19%

Poland U19 1+ goals

78%

Poland U19 2+ goals

44%

Poland U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Finland U19 scores more

38%

level

24%

Poland U19 scores more

38%

Finland U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

C. Terho

45+1'

L. Hyryläinen

61'

M. Fornalczyk← S. Włodarczyk

63'

E. Patut← M. Stjopin

63'

H. Salomaa← N. Saarikivi

63'

K. Meriluoto← A. Sadiku

67'

A. BuksaPenalty

72'

T. Neugebauer← J. Kisiel

84'

O. Koskinen← N. Pyyhtiä

87'

H. Salomaa

90+2'

L. Ikonen← C. Terho

Finland

Poland

1

3

2

7

17

5

4

▼

Kisiel

10

Urbański

8

Starzyńsk

9

⚽

Buksa

20

▼

1

4

17

2

15

⚽

▼

Terho

9

▼

Pyyhtiä

7

▼

Saarikivi

6

⚽

Hyryläine

18

▼

Stjopin

16

Pettersso

10

▼

Sadiku

Manager: P. Lundberg

63'▲E. Patut←▼M. Stjopin

63'▲H. Salomaa←▼N. Saarikivi

63'▲K. Meriluoto←▼A. Sadiku

84'▲O. Koskinen←▼N. Pyyhtiä

90+2'▲L. Ikonen←▼C. Terho

Finland U19 substitutes

14Patut20Salomaa11Meriluoto13Koskinen8Ikonen12Henriksson3Nikki19Kivikko5Talo

Manager: M. Rumak

61'▲M. Fornalczyk←▼S. Włodarczyk

72'▲T. Neugebauer←▼J. Kisiel

Poland U19 substitutes

11Fornalczyk16Neugebauer14Bukowski18Borowski13Palacz15Lipp6Łęgowski19Sukiennicki12Dziekoński

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Finland U19 3–1 Poland U19

Finland U19 beat Poland U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 6, 2021.

Goals: C. Terho (21'), L. Hyryläinen (45+1'), A. Buksa (67' pen), H. Salomaa (87').

The match was played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Grodzisk Wielkopolski.

Finland U19 vs Poland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Finland U19 3–1 Poland U19