Finland U19 0–3 Netherlands U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Netherlands U19

T. van den Elshout 90', 87', 78'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Estadi Olimpic Camilo Cano La Nucia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Finland U1919%

×Draw20%

Netherlands U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchNetherlands U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.27

Finland U19

1.21

Netherlands U19

2.27

Netherlands U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.82

creates per match

2.90

1.64

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Netherlands U19

2.90

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Netherlands U19

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Netherlands U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

39%

Finland U19 or Netherlands U19

80%

Draw or Netherlands U19

81%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

8%

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

70%

Finland U19 2+ goals

34%

Finland U19 3+ goals

12%

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

90%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

66%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Netherlands U19 away — creates 2.90, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Netherlands U19 attack 2.90 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Finland U19 scores more

19%

level

20%

Netherlands U19 scores more

61%

Netherlands U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Le Goff-Conan

52'

J. Koller

58'

T. van den Elshout← S. Kluivert

58'

D. Agustien← J. Koller

65'

S. Daldum← R. Vikstrom

72'

76'

76'

77'

78'

T. van den Elshout↳ A. Thomas

80'

M. Bahaty

87'

T. van den Elshout

89'

S. Steur← T. Kraaijeveld

89'

G. Vianello← L. Oldenstam

90+1'

T. Koukkumaki← O. Multala

90'

T. van den Elshout

Finland

Netherlands

1

Velde

12

▼

2

4

5

10

▼

Koller

18

▼

Kraaijeve

8

Berg

7

▼

Gurbuz

9

▼

Kluivert

11

A

12

17

4

5

2

8

▼

Multala

18

Nylund

22

Kirilov

11

▼

Nzoko

10

▼

Vikstrom

19

Mero

Manager: P. Lundberg

65'▲S. Daldum←▼R. Vikstrom

77'▲E. Turkki←▼D. Nzoko

90+1'▲T. Koukkumaki←▼O. Multala

Finland U19 substitutes

1Haapanen3Turkki6Tanninen7Lappalainen9Daldum13Konttas15Sovelius20Machaal21Koukkumaki

Manager: Adil Ramzi

58'▲T. van den Elshout←▼S. Kluivert

58'▲D. Agustien←▼J. Koller

72'▲M. Bahaty←▼E. Gurbuz

89'▲S. Steur←▼T. Kraaijeveld

89'▲G. Vianello←▼L. Oldenstam

Netherlands U19 substitutes

16Kuijsten3Johnson6Steur14Manuhutu15Vianello17Bahaty19Elshout20Agustien21Mustapha

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Finland U19 0–3 Netherlands U19

Netherlands U19 beat Finland U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2026.

Goals: T. van den Elshout (78', 87', 90').

The match was played at Estadi Olimpic Camilo Cano La Nucia in La Nucia.

Finland U19 vs Netherlands U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Finland U19 0–3 Netherlands U19