Finland U19 3–2 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lithuania U19

Unknown 85' (OG)

D. Ezeh 64', 47'

E. Gudelevicius 90+5'

N. Vosylius 52'

6/16/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Finland U1965%

×Draw19%

Lithuania U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.00

Finland U19

2.25

Lithuania U19

1.00

Finland U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Finland U19

2.50

Lithuania U19

1.00

allows per match

Finland U19

1.00

Lithuania U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

84%

Finland U19 or Lithuania U19

81%

Draw or Lithuania U19

35%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

42%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

89%

Finland U19 2+ goals

65%

Finland U19 3+ goals

39%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

63%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

26%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 2.50 + Lithuania U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lithuania U19 attack 1.00 + Finland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Finland U19 scores more

65%

level

19%

Lithuania U19 scores more

16%

Finland U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

K. Olsauskas

47'

D. Ezeh

52'

N. Vosylius

60'

M. Monkelis← M. Monkelis

60'

E. Gudelevicius← E. Gudelevicius

60'

J. Pastukas← J. Pastukas

61'

D. Armstrong← D. Armstrong

61'

R. Hudd← R. Hudd

61'

J. Kekarainen← J. Kekarainen

61'

S. Baranov← S. Baranov

64'

D. Ezeh

74'

O. Vaisto← O. Vaisto

74'

A. Soiniemi← A. Soiniemi

74'

N. Klimavicius← N. Klimavicius

74'

M. Setkus← M. Setkus

85'

Own goal

90+1'

D. Terrnava← D. Terrnava

90+5'

E. Gudelevicius

90+6'

D. Terrnava

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff