Finland U19 0–4 Israel U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Israel U19

A. Lugasi 90', 65', 21'

R. Binyamin 18'

11/16/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Finland U1933%

×Draw23%

Israel U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchIsrael U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.71

Finland U19

1.48

Israel U19

1.71

Israel U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.79

1.64

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Israel U19

1.79

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Israel U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Israel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

57%

Finland U19 or Israel U19

77%

Draw or Israel U19

67%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

16%

Israel U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

77%

Finland U19 2+ goals

43%

Finland U19 3+ goals

19%

Israel U19 1+ goals

82%

Israel U19 2+ goals

51%

Israel U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Israel U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Israel U19 attack 1.79 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Finland U19 scores more

33%

level

23%

Israel U19 scores more

43%

Israel U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

R. Binyamin

21'

A. Lugasi

56'

I. Vidjeskog← D. Rökman

58'

D. Worko← S. Genis

65'

A. Lugasi

71'

O. Israelov

72'

A. Tanninen← O. Lehtisalo

74'

A. Cordova← O. Israelov

74'

A. Yona← T. Abed

79'

I. Feingold

84'

N. Ben Harush← I. Feingold

84'

R. Alkokin← R. Binyamin

86'

A. Hellemaa← N. Kujasalo

90'

A. Lugasi

Finland

Israel

1

Melika

4

▼

Israelov

13

▼

Feingold

2

Tomer

19

Elgaby

15

▼

Abed

6

Navi

14

⚽

▼

Binyamin

10

⚽3

Lugasi

11

▼

7

1

15

3

4

2

11

▼

Rökman

13

Liimatta

8

▼

Kujasalo

14

Kilo

19

Bushara

20

▼

Lehtisalo

Manager: P. Lundberg

56'▲I. Vidjeskog←▼D. Rökman

72'▲A. Tanninen←▼O. Lehtisalo

86'▲A. Hellemaa←▼N. Kujasalo

Finland U19 substitutes

10Vidjeskog9Tanninen6Hellemaa12Partanen7Möller16Häggström18Miettinen5Huhtamäki

Manager: O. Haim

58'▲D. Worko←▼S. Genis

74'▲A. Cordova←▼O. Israelov

74'▲A. Yona←▼T. Abed

84'▲N. Ben Harush←▼I. Feingold

84'▲R. Alkokin←▼R. Binyamin

Israel U19 substitutes

20Worko3Cordova8Yona12Harush16Alkokin17Madmon9Ramot18Greis5Laish

Match Recap: Finland U19 vs Israel U19

Israel U19 beat Finland U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2022.

Goals: R. Binyamin (18'), A. Lugasi (21', 65', 90').

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.

Finland U19 vs Israel U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Finland U19 vs Israel U19