Finland U19 3–2 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Iceland U19

R. Vikstrom 88', 33', 12'

V. Dadason 70'

D. Johannesson 21' (pen)

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Finland U1939%

×Draw24%

Iceland U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.55

Finland U19

1.61

Iceland U19

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.82

creates per match

1.47

1.64

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

63%

Finland U19 or Iceland U19

76%

Draw or Iceland U19

61%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

20%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

80%

Finland U19 2+ goals

48%

Finland U19 3+ goals

22%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

79%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

46%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Finland U19 scores more

39%

level

24%

Iceland U19 scores more

37%

Finland U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

R. Vikstrom

20'

M. Kirilov

21'

D. JohannessonPenalty

33'

R. Vikstrom↳ A. Le Goff-Conan

45+1'

R. Vikstrom

68'

T. Mero← D. Nzoko

68'

F. Gudnason← R. Hlynsson

68'

V. Vidarsson← J. Arnarsson

70'

V. Dadason↳ G. Hallsson

79'

K. Gudbergsson

84'

G. Gunnarsson← T. Kristjansson

88'

J. Sigurdsson← G. Olsen

88'

R. Vikstrom↳ L. Vesterbacka

Finland

Iceland

1

Simonarso

6

A

4

5

3

15

▼

Hlynsson

8

⚽

Johanness

18

▼

Arnarsson

7

▼

Olsen

10

▼

Kristjans

9

⚽

Dadason

12

Maukonen

17

A

Vesterbac

15

Kangasnie

4

Kumpu

2

A

8

18

22

11

▼

Nzoko

10

⚽3

Vikstrom

21

Koukkumak

Manager: P. Lundberg

68'▲T. Mero←▼D. Nzoko

Finland U19 substitutes

1Happonen3Konttas5Kari6Machaal7Katz9Ketola13Tikkanen19Mero20Tiitinen

Manager: Þ. Siggeirsson

68'▲F. Gudnason←▼R. Hlynsson

68'▲V. Vidarsson←▼J. Arnarsson

84'▲G. Gunnarsson←▼T. Kristjansson

88'▲J. Sigurdsson←▼G. Olsen

Iceland U19 substitutes

12Ingvason2Asgeirsson11Gudnason13Arnarsson14Vidarsson16Halldorsson17Gunnarsson19Sigurdsson20Karlsson