Finland U19 2–1 Estonia U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Estonia U19

A. Haikala 90'

B. Katz 81'

K. Magi 33'

3/28/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Finland U1955%

×Draw23%

Estonia U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchEstonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.14

Finland U19

1.88

Estonia U19

1.14

Finland U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

0.64

1.64

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Estonia U19

0.64

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Estonia U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

77%

Finland U19 or Estonia U19

77%

Draw or Estonia U19

45%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

31%

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

85%

Finland U19 2+ goals

56%

Finland U19 3+ goals

29%

Estonia U19 1+ goals

68%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

32%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Finland U19 scores more

55%

level

23%

Estonia U19 scores more

23%

Finland U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Finland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

K. Magi

46'

A. Haikala← O. Okungbowa

46'

L. Puhakainen← M. Laaksonen

61'

A. Truuvaart← R. Leppik

61'

M. Kesa← N. Kalmokov

62'

P. Otoo← N. Vainio

71'

N. Rantasalmi← V. Lehtomaki

71'

A. Radomskiy← T. Hint

81'

B. Katz↳ N. Rantasalmi

89'

E. Dolgov← K. Magi

90+2'

R. Aho← M. Hietakangas

90'

A. Haikala

Finland

Estonia

1

3

5

6

18

▼

Kalmokov

13

▼

Hint

7

Valdmets

15

▼

Leppik

10

Kukkonen

11

Alamaa

2

⚽

▼

Magi

1

Hasselman

3

▼

Hietakang

4

Nyback

15

▼

2

14

6

20

▼

Lehtomaki

7

▼

Vainio

11

▼

Okungbowa

10

⚽

Katz

Manager: P. Lundberg

46'▲A. Haikala←▼O. Okungbowa

46'▲L. Puhakainen←▼M. Laaksonen

62'▲P. Otoo←▼N. Vainio

71'▲N. Rantasalmi←▼V. Lehtomaki

90+2'▲R. Aho←▼M. Hietakangas

Finland U19 substitutes

12Silen5Salmivuori8Haikala9Rantasalmi13Aho17Otoo19Muchipay22Puhakainen

61'▲A. Truuvaart←▼R. Leppik

61'▲M. Kesa←▼N. Kalmokov

71'▲A. Radomskiy←▼T. Hint

89'▲E. Dolgov←▼K. Magi

Estonia U19 substitutes

12Ruus4Zahovaiko8Paltser9Radomskiy14Truuvaart16Kesa17Besigirskis19Kasemaa20Dolgov

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Finland U19 2–1 Estonia U19

Finland U19 beat Estonia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2026.

Goals: K. Magi (33'), B. Katz (81'), A. Haikala (90').

Finland U19 vs Estonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Finland U19 2–1 Estonia U19