Finland U19 1–3 Belgium U19: Result & Stats

Finland U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Belgium U19

T. Keskinen 90'

L. Oyen 60'

M. Stroeykens 21' (pen)

J. Bakayoko 16'

3/23/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Finland U1934%

×Draw24%

Belgium U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U19Expected goals in this matchBelgium U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.64

Finland U19

1.45

Belgium U19

1.64

Belgium U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.64

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Finland U19

1.82

Belgium U19

1.64

allows per match

Finland U19

1.64

Belgium U19

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U19+0.00on par

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Finland U19 or draw

58%

Finland U19 or Belgium U19

76%

Draw or Belgium U19

66%

Winning margin

Finland U19 wins by 2+

16%

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Finland U19 1+ goals

77%

Finland U19 2+ goals

42%

Finland U19 3+ goals

18%

Belgium U19 1+ goals

81%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

49%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U19 attack 1.82 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + Finland U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Finland U19 scores more

34%

level

24%

Belgium U19 scores more

42%

Belgium U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Bakayoko

21'

M. StroeykensPenalty

38'

L. Hyrylainen

46'

N. Saarikivi← E. Patut

60'

L. Oyen

65'

A. Calut← T. Rommens

65'

A. Engels← J. Bakayoko

69'

A. Engwanda← R. Lavia

71'

K. Meriluoto← A. Sadiku

71'

T. Keskinen← C. Terho

80'

N. Talo← O. Pettersson

82'

K. Olaigbe← C. Sandra

87'

M. Wasinski

87'

O. Koskinen← L. Hyryläinen

90+1'

M. Koskela

90'

T. Keskinen

Finland

Belgium

1

Boets

5

▼

Rommens

3

Leysen

14

Wasinski

10

⚽

Oyen

11

Audoor

8

▼

Sandra

9

⚽

Stroeyken

6

▼

Lavia

17

Mondele

7

⚽

▼

1

4

17

2

16

▼

Pettersso

14

▼

Patut

6

▼

Hyryläine

8

Walta

15

▼

Terho

18

Stjopin

10

▼

Sadiku

Manager: P. Lundberg

46'▲N. Saarikivi←▼E. Patut

71'▲K. Meriluoto←▼A. Sadiku

71'▲T. Keskinen←▼C. Terho

80'▲N. Talo←▼O. Pettersson

87'▲O. Koskinen←▼L. Hyryläinen

Finland U19 substitutes

7Saarikivi11Meriluoto20Keskinen5Talo13Koskinen12Henriksson3Nikki9Ikonen19Kivikko

Manager: W. Sonck

65'▲A. Calut←▼T. Rommens

65'▲A. Engels←▼J. Bakayoko

69'▲A. Engwanda←▼R. Lavia

82'▲K. Olaigbe←▼C. Sandra

Belgium U19 substitutes

20Calut21Engels16Engwanda15Olaigbe19Descotte4Lagae18Mbamba2Ngoy12Jochmans