Finland U18 W 4–0 Lebanon U18 W: Result & Stats

Finland U18 W

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lebanon U18 W

C. Jantti 67', 52'

H. Kumpulainen 58'

J. Todoschenko 46'

4/3/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland U18 W75%

×Draw15%

Lebanon U18 W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U18 WExpected goals in this matchLebanon U18 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.00

Finland U18 W

2.83

Lebanon U18 W

1.00

Finland U18 W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.67

0.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Finland U18 W

2.67

Lebanon U18 W

1.67

allows per match

Finland U18 W

0.33

Lebanon U18 W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U18 W+0.00on par

Lebanon U18 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U18 W ↓

Lebanon U18 W →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Finland U18 W or draw

89%

Finland U18 W or Lebanon U18 W

85%

Draw or Lebanon U18 W

25%

Winning margin

Finland U18 W wins by 2+

54%

Lebanon U18 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Finland U18 W 1+ goals

94%

Finland U18 W 2+ goals

77%

Finland U18 W 3+ goals

53%

Lebanon U18 W 1+ goals

63%

Lebanon U18 W 2+ goals

26%

Lebanon U18 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Finland U18 W (draw refunded)

87%

Lebanon U18 W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Finland U18 W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Lebanon U18 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Finland U18 W attack 2.67 + Lebanon U18 W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Lebanon U18 W attack 1.67 + Finland U18 W defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Finland U18 W scores more

75%

level

15%

Lebanon U18 W scores more

11%

Finland U18 W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Finland U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

52'

58'

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff