Finland U18 W 1–0 Iceland U19 W: Result & Stats

Finland U18 W

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland U19 W

O. Ulenius 55'

6/25/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland U18 W60%

×Draw21%

Iceland U19 W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U18 WExpected goals in this matchIceland U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.00

Finland U18 W

2.00

Iceland U19 W

1.00

Finland U18 W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

1.67

0.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Finland U18 W

2.67

Iceland U19 W

1.67

allows per match

Finland U18 W

0.33

Iceland U19 W

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U18 W+0.00on par

Iceland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U18 W ↓

Iceland U19 W →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Finland U18 W or draw

82%

Finland U18 W or Iceland U19 W

79%

Draw or Iceland U19 W

40%

Winning margin

Finland U18 W wins by 2+

36%

Iceland U19 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Finland U18 W 1+ goals

86%

Finland U18 W 2+ goals

59%

Finland U18 W 3+ goals

32%

Iceland U19 W 1+ goals

63%

Iceland U19 W 2+ goals

26%

Iceland U19 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Finland U18 W (draw refunded)

77%

Iceland U19 W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Finland U18 W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Iceland U19 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Finland U18 W attack 2.67 + Iceland U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Iceland U19 W attack 1.67 + Finland U18 W defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Finland U18 W scores more

60%

level

21%

Iceland U19 W scores more

18%

Finland U18 W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Finland U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

O. Ulenius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff