Finland U17 5–1 Latvia U17: Result & Stats

Finland U17

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Latvia U17

7/2/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalJari Litmanen Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland U1750%

×Draw18%

Latvia U1732%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U17Expected goals in this matchLatvia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

2.52

Finland U17

3.12

Latvia U17

2.52

Finland U17 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.57

creates per match

3.33

1.71

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Finland U17

2.57

Latvia U17

3.33

allows per match

Finland U17

1.71

Latvia U17

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U17+0.00on par

Latvia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U17 ↓

Latvia U17 →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Finland U17 or draw

68%

Finland U17 or Latvia U17

82%

Draw or Latvia U17

50%

Winning margin

Finland U17 wins by 2+

32%

Latvia U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Finland U17 1+ goals

95%

Finland U17 2+ goals

81%

Finland U17 3+ goals

59%

Latvia U17 1+ goals

92%

Latvia U17 2+ goals

71%

Latvia U17 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Finland U17 (draw refunded)

61%

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

85%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Finland U17 at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Latvia U17 away — creates 3.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Finland U17 attack 2.57 + Latvia U17 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.12

Latvia U17 attack 3.33 + Finland U17 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Finland U17 scores more

50%

level

18%

Latvia U17 scores more

32%

Finland U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Finland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff