Finland U17 0–0 Estonia U17: Result & Stats

Finland U17

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estonia U17

6/28/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalJari Litmanen Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Finland U1753%

×Draw21%

Estonia U1727%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finland U17Expected goals in this matchEstonia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.50

Finland U17

2.17

Estonia U17

1.50

Finland U17 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Finland U17

2.33

Estonia U17

1.00

allows per match

Finland U17

2.00

Estonia U17

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland U17+0.00on par

Estonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U17 ↓

Estonia U17 →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Finland U17 or draw

73%

Finland U17 or Estonia U17

79%

Draw or Estonia U17

47%

Winning margin

Finland U17 wins by 2+

32%

Estonia U17 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Finland U17 1+ goals

89%

Finland U17 2+ goals

64%

Finland U17 3+ goals

36%

Estonia U17 1+ goals

78%

Estonia U17 2+ goals

44%

Estonia U17 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Finland U17 (draw refunded)

66%

Estonia U17 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Finland U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Estonia U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Finland U17 attack 2.33 + Estonia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Estonia U17 attack 1.00 + Finland U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Finland U17 scores more

53%

level

21%

Estonia U17 scores more

27%

Finland U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Finland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Finland

Estonia

Manager: E. Lehtola

Manager: A. Oper