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Finland U17 vs Armenia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Finland U17
Finland U17
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Armenia U17
Armenia U17
10/31/2025UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Finland U1769%
×Draw16%
Armenia U1714%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finland U17
2.70
Armenia U17
1.17

Finland U17 creates 131% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Finland U17
1.67
Armenia U17
0.33

allows per match

Finland U17
2.00
Armenia U17
3.73

finishing

Finland U17+0.00on par
Armenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U17 ↓

Armenia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Finland U17 or draw
86%
Finland U17 or Armenia U17
84%
Draw or Armenia U17
31%

Winning margin

Finland U17 wins by 2+
48%
Armenia U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Finland U17 1+ goals
93%
Finland U17 2+ goals
75%
Finland U17 3+ goals
50%
Armenia U17 1+ goals
69%
Armenia U17 2+ goals
33%
Armenia U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Finland U17 (draw refunded)
83%
Armenia U17 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Armenia U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U17 attack 1.67 + Armenia U17 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.70

Armenia U17 attack 0.33 + Finland U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Finland U17 scores more
69%
level
16%
Armenia U17 scores more
14%

Finland U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Finland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Finland U17 vs Armenia U17

Finland U17 beat Armenia U17 2-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 31, 2025.