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Fiľakovo vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
FT
0 – 1
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
8/15/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 3Štadión FTC Fiľakovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fiľakovo59%
×Draw22%
Tatran Krásno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiľakovo
1.98
Tatran Krásno
1.06

Fiľakovo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fiľakovo
1.92
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Fiľakovo
1.08
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Fiľakovo+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiľakovo ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fiľakovo or draw
80%
Fiľakovo or Tatran Krásno
78%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
41%

Winning margin

Fiľakovo wins by 2+
35%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fiľakovo 1+ goals
86%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
59%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
31%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
65%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
29%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
75%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiľakovo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiľakovo attack 1.92 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Fiľakovo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fiľakovo scores more
59%
level
22%
Tatran Krásno scores more
20%

Fiľakovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fiľakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiľakovo vs Tatran Krásno

Tatran Krásno beat Fiľakovo 1-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FTC Fiľakovo in Fiľakovo.