Fiľakovo 3–1 Slovan Giraltovce: Result & Stats

Fiľakovo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Slovan Giraltovce

10/23/2022

3. liga - East · East - 12Štadión FTC Fiľakovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fiľakovo62%

×Draw21%

Slovan Giraltovce17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiľakovoExpected goals in this matchSlovan Giraltovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.92

Fiľakovo

1.99

Slovan Giraltovce

0.92

Fiľakovo creates 116% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.64

creates per match

0.50

1.34

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Fiľakovo

1.64

Slovan Giraltovce

0.50

allows per match

Fiľakovo

1.34

Slovan Giraltovce

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiľakovo+0.00on par

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiľakovo ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fiľakovo or draw

83%

Fiľakovo or Slovan Giraltovce

79%

Draw or Slovan Giraltovce

38%

Winning margin

Fiľakovo wins by 2+

38%

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fiľakovo 1+ goals

86%

Fiľakovo 2+ goals

59%

Fiľakovo 3+ goals

32%

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

60%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

23%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fiľakovo (draw refunded)

79%

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiľakovo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiľakovo attack 1.64 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.99

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Fiľakovo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fiľakovo scores more

62%

level

21%

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

17%

Fiľakovo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fiľakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff