Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fiľakovo vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
FT
1 – 0
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
8/29/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 5Štadión FTC Fiľakovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fiľakovo70%
×Draw17%
Liptovská Štiavnica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiľakovo
2.40
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.91

Fiľakovo creates 164% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fiľakovo
1.92
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Fiľakovo
1.08
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Fiľakovo+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiľakovo ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fiľakovo or draw
87%
Fiľakovo or Liptovská Štiavnica
83%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
30%

Winning margin

Fiľakovo wins by 2+
47%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fiľakovo 1+ goals
91%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
69%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
42%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
60%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
23%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
85%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiľakovo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiľakovo attack 1.92 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.40

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Fiľakovo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Fiľakovo scores more
70%
level
17%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
13%

Fiľakovo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Fiľakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiľakovo vs Liptovská Štiavnica

Fiľakovo beat Liptovská Štiavnica 1-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FTC Fiľakovo in Fiľakovo.