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Fiľakovo vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
CANC
14:30
Kováčová
Kováčová
5/2/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 21Štadión FTC Fiľakovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fiľakovo51%
×Draw24%
Kováčová25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiľakovo
1.70
Kováčová
1.10

Fiľakovo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fiľakovo
1.92
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Fiľakovo
1.08
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Fiľakovo+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiľakovo ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fiľakovo or draw
75%
Fiľakovo or Kováčová
76%
Draw or Kováčová
49%

Winning margin

Fiľakovo wins by 2+
28%
Kováčová wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fiľakovo 1+ goals
82%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
51%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
24%
Kováčová 1+ goals
67%
Kováčová 2+ goals
30%
Kováčová 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
68%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiľakovo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiľakovo attack 1.92 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Fiľakovo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiľakovo scores more
51%
level
24%
Kováčová scores more
25%

Fiľakovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiľakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fiľakovo vs Kováčová — Match Preview

Fiľakovo face Kováčová on May 2, 2021 in this 3. liga - Center fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fiľakovo host Kováčová at Štadión FTC Fiľakovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.