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Fiji W vs New Caledonia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Fiji W
Fiji W
FT
2 – 1
New Caledonia W
New Caledonia W
10/10/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2HFC Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiji W62%
×Draw18%
New Caledonia W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiji W
2.59
New Caledonia W
1.43

Fiji W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Fiji W
2.43
New Caledonia W
1.00

allows per match

Fiji W
1.86
New Caledonia W
2.75

finishing

Fiji W+0.00on par
New Caledonia W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiji W ↓

New Caledonia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Fiji W or draw
80%
Fiji W or New Caledonia W
82%
Draw or New Caledonia W
38%

Winning margin

Fiji W wins by 2+
41%
New Caledonia W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fiji W 1+ goals
92%
Fiji W 2+ goals
73%
Fiji W 3+ goals
47%
New Caledonia W 1+ goals
76%
New Caledonia W 2+ goals
42%
New Caledonia W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fiji W (draw refunded)
76%
New Caledonia W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiji W at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

New Caledonia W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiji W attack 2.43 + New Caledonia W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.59

New Caledonia W attack 1.00 + Fiji W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fiji W scores more
62%
level
18%
New Caledonia W scores more
20%

Fiji W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fiji W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiji W vs New Caledonia W

Fiji W beat New Caledonia W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on October 10, 2023.

The match was played at HFC Bank Stadium in Suva.