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Fiji W vs Cook Islands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Fiji W
Fiji W
FT
4 – 1
Cook Islands W
Cook Islands W
7/8/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Uprising Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fiji W58%
×Draw20%
Cook Islands W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiji W
2.21
Cook Islands W
1.27

Fiji W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Fiji W
2.43
Cook Islands W
0.67

allows per match

Fiji W
1.86
Cook Islands W
2.00

finishing

Fiji W+0.00on par
Cook Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiji W ↓

Cook Islands W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fiji W or draw
79%
Fiji W or Cook Islands W
80%
Draw or Cook Islands W
42%

Winning margin

Fiji W wins by 2+
36%
Cook Islands W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fiji W 1+ goals
89%
Fiji W 2+ goals
65%
Fiji W 3+ goals
38%
Cook Islands W 1+ goals
72%
Cook Islands W 2+ goals
36%
Cook Islands W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fiji W (draw refunded)
73%
Cook Islands W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiji W at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Cook Islands W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiji W attack 2.43 + Cook Islands W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Cook Islands W attack 0.67 + Fiji W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fiji W scores more
58%
level
20%
Cook Islands W scores more
21%

Fiji W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fiji W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiji W vs Cook Islands W

Fiji W beat Cook Islands W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Uprising Sports Center in Pacific Harbour.