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Figueres vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres35%
×Draw29%
Vilassar Mar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.11
Vilassar Mar
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
64%
Figueres or Vilassar Mar
71%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
65%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
14%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
67%
Figueres 2+ goals
30%
Figueres 3+ goals
10%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
68%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
32%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
49%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Figueres scores more
35%
level
29%
Vilassar Mar scores more
36%

Vilassar Mar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Figueres 1–1 Vilassar Mar

Figueres and Vilassar Mar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim in Figueras.