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Figueres vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
CANC
00:00
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres38%
×Draw27%
Vilafranca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.31
Vilafranca
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
65%
Figueres or Vilafranca
73%
Draw or Vilafranca
62%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
17%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
73%
Figueres 2+ goals
38%
Figueres 3+ goals
14%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
71%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
35%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
52%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Figueres scores more
38%
level
27%
Vilafranca scores more
35%

Figueres at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Figueres face Vilafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 returns with Figueres hosting Vilafranca. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Figueres host Vilafranca at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.