Figueres 0–3 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Figueres

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Terrassa

Álex Poves 88'

Sergi Arranz 75', 8'

2/23/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Figueres26%

×Draw28%

Terrassa46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueresExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.36

Figueres

0.95

Terrassa

1.36

Terrassa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

1.04

creates per match

1.36

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Figueres

1.04

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Figueres

1.36

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Terrassa →

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Figueres or draw

54%

Figueres or Terrassa

72%

Draw or Terrassa

74%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+

Terrassa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals

61%

Figueres 2+ goals

25%

Figueres 3+ goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

74%

Terrassa 2+ goals

39%

Terrassa 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)

36%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Figueres scores more

26%

level

28%

Terrassa scores more

46%

Terrassa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Sergi Arranz

61'

Enzo Sarmiento← Oriol Pujadas

61'

Bora← Modest Notario

63'

Y. Sidibe← Jaume Pascual

70'

Kevin← David Corominas

73'

C. Treviño← Pol Blay

75'

Sergi Arranz

82'

Álex Poves← Sergi Arranz

88'

Álex Poves

Figueres

Terrassa

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Javier Salamero

61'▲Enzo Sarmiento←▼Oriol Pujadas

61'▲Bora←▼Modest Notario

73'▲C. Treviño←▼Pol Blay

Figueres substitutes

SarmientoBoraTreviño

Manager: Molist

63'▲Y. Sidibe←▼Jaume Pascual

70'▲Kevin←▼David Corominas

82'▲Álex Poves←▼Sergi Arranz

Terrassa substitutes

SidibeKevinPoves

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Figueres 0–3 Terrassa

Terrassa beat Figueres 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 23, 2020.

Goals: Sergi Arranz (8', 75'), Álex Poves (88').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim in Figueras.

Figueres vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Figueres 0–3 Terrassa