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Figueres vs Sants — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
CANC
00:00
Sants
Sants
3/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres44%
×Draw27%
Sants29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.39
Sants
1.09

Figueres creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
Sants
0.82

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
Sants
1.73

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Sants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
71%
Figueres or Sants
73%
Draw or Sants
56%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
21%
Sants wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
75%
Figueres 2+ goals
40%
Figueres 3+ goals
16%
Sants 1+ goals
66%
Sants 2+ goals
30%
Sants 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
60%
Sants (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sants attack 0.82 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Figueres scores more
44%
level
27%
Sants scores more
29%

Figueres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Figueres host Sants

March 25, 2020: Figueres take on Sants in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Figueres host Sants at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.